'Doomsday Clock' Remains Close to Midnight

The annual announcement today cites more "ominous" dangers.

Greg Mitchell is the author of a dozen books, including “Hiroshima in America,” “Atomic Cover-up” and the recent award-winning “The Beginning or the End: How Hollywood—and America—Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.” He has directed three documentary films since 2021 for PBS (you can still watch “Atomic Cover-up”). You can subscribe to this newsletter for free.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists hosted a live virtual news conference today, at 10 am EST to announce the 2024 Doomsday Clock time. It gets moved closer or farther from Midnight based on global dangers. For decades this was largely limited to nuclear threats but in recent years includes, most notably, climate change and now AI.

Last year it was moved to 90 seconds before Midnight, the closest it has ever been, due to nuclear threats related to the Ukraine war and rising climate dangers. This year it re-set the clock at the same distance, 11:58:30.

The announcement came just hours after the Christopher Nolan “Oppenheimer” movie topped the Oscar nominations, with thirteen. Many had predicted the film would spark a new massive antinuclear movement but this failed to materialize, as some doubted from the start due to various shortcomings in the movie. See my critiques at my new Oppenheimer site/newsletter.

Today, the Bulletin cited new or continuing “ominous” dangers, including the new Israel/Gaza tragedy, the continuing Ukraine war, and another rise in climate temps and lack of action to combat, emerging AI threats, among other dangers.

According to the Bulletin:

The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet. 

Each year, the Clock is set by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, a group of internationally recognized experts on nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies, and biosecurity. 

And today’s summary:

A moment of historic danger: It is still 90 seconds to midnight.

The members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board have been deeply worried about the deteriorating state of the world. Last year, we expressed our heightened concern by moving the Clock to 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been—in large part because of Russian threats to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.

Today, we once again set the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight because humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger. Our decision should not be taken as a sign that the international security situation has eased. Instead, leaders and citizens around the world should take this statement as a stark warning and respond urgently, as if today were the most dangerous moment in modern history. Because it may well be.

But the world can be made safer. The Clock can move away from midnight. As we wrote last year, “In this time of unprecedented global danger, concerted action is required, and every second counts.” That is just as true today.

Read the full statement from the Science and Security Board and learn more about the Doomsday Clock.

A key issue that I have focused on—for over 40 years now—remains unchanged. As I have written:

Various polls, in fact, reveal that a large segment of the American public (from 30% to 50% depending on specifics) seem to be okay with the U.S. striking first and maybe killing millions of civilians if, say, Iran launches a conventional attack on our forces or North Korea rattles its own missiles. I will return to this subject more than once, as I am the author of three books on lessons of the atomic bombings of 1945.

For now I will refer you to my recent Newsweek piece on our “first-use” nuclear policy. It closes: “Dwight D. Eisenhower, then the commanding general in Europe and later president of the United States, opposed the first use of the atomic bomb against Japan, calling it that ‘awful thing’ and urging the U.S. to ‘avoid shocking world opinion.’ Admiral William Leahy, President Truman's chief of staff, also criticized that first strike as a "barbarous" weapon against Japan. First use of far more powerful and destructive nuclear weapons must be strictly avoided today. No single, fallible person should have the authority to take an action that could lead to millions of deaths—or even the end of civilization.”